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Monday, March 06, 2006

What's Wrong With South Dakota

So South Dakota has decided that the time is right to challenge Roe v. Wade.  

While I support a State‚Äôs right to regulate abortion as they see fit, this is just a dumb move.  

At best, there are four votes to overturn Roe: Thomas and Scalia who are on the record as opposing Roe in Casey, and Roberts and Alito who are Bush appointees and can therefore be characterized as ant-Roe.

The Supreme Court would have no choice to take up an appeal of this case, and then Roe will then be reaffirmed 5-4.  

Unless Governor Rounds has some inside information that Ginsburg or Stevens is about to retire, this is really dumb.  

9 Comments:

Supreme Court will only grant cert if both the District and Circuit Courts fail to apply Roe.
I can definitly see them granting cert to affirm a Circuit Court's affirmation of Roe. It only takes 4 justices to grant cert.
That would go against all principles relating to the granting of cert.
How so? It takes 4 Justices to grant cert. So if Stevens, Breyer, Ginsburg and Souter want to strengthen Roe, they can grant cert and reaffirm it with Kennedey.
Not in the number of justices needed to grant a petition, rather the Justices focus on resolving disputed or unclear areas of the law (basicly circuit splits).
So because Casey upheld Roe the Court is going never again revisit the issue?
Not the central holding unless a circuit court fails to uphold it, or if the right-flank thinks they have the votes to overturn it.
Forget that, this was simply a terrible case to take it up with. No protection for the health of the mother? Forget it, this will lose 9-0.
if the d.ct. and the circuit apply roe, the S.Ct will never grant cert unless they think there are votes to overturn it.

even assuming four to overturn it (which I think is a false assumption), those 4 wouldn't vote to grant cert unless they were sure there was a fifth. And there's no reason for the 5+ that would affirm Roe to grant cert in such an open and shut case.

Never gonna happen, unless there's a fifth vote we don't know about. And being a court watcher, I don't see Roberts or Alito as a sure thing to vote against roe. Restrict it on the margins, maybe, but not overturning a 30+ year precedent that's been affirmed numerous times.

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